How much grid expansion is necessary?A cost comparison is impossible because there is no working assumption. You cannot compare a wooden model with a car because the wooden model cannot drive.
Phase 1: When the sun shines, caloric power plants are switched off. However, since it is not possible to switch off more caloric power plants than are currently switched on, the limit for this method is 70 GW of photovoltaics in Germany. What a coincidence, exactly these 70 GW used to be constantly mentioned as the expansion target for photovoltaics in Germany. So the problem of storage was deliberately and intentionally ignored. The potential of photovoltaics has been deliberately and intentionally presented in a minimalist way. If you have such a lobby, you don't need any more enemies. This led to the destruction of the German photovoltaic industry in 2013. One thought "Why so much effort for 10 er power production". Phase 2: Day/night balancing with batteries. With 300 GW of photovoltaics, Germany can then run continuously 0 to 24 with solar power on beautiful summer days. Yes, that's right, I wrote "beautiful summer days" and not "heat death danger days", as the latest lousy campaign of the government tries to indoctrinate. Phase 3: Summer/winter balancing via Power to X. This can be methane, methanol or hydrogen. Because hydrogen requires 3.2 times more volume to store, hydrogen is the worst candidate, which is hyped for incomprehensible reasons.
Money must work. A battery works in day/night balance 365 days a year. Sometimes more, sometimes less, but nevertheless in Germany about 130 kWh per kW battery capacity are stored and delivered per year. So you can calculate in rough approximation: Battery price / 20 years / 130 full charge cycles per year = storage cost per kWh. For example, 150 € / 20 years / 135 = 5.6 cents storage costs per kWh. But if you enter only 1 instead of 130, the result is 150 / 20 years / 1 = 7.50 €. Therefore, the accumulator is suitable for day/night compensation, but not for summer/winter compensation. Something cheaper is needed, even if efficiency suffers considerably. For example, to store 3 TWh of excess summer electricity, 1,500 MW of power to methane, 0.3 km³ of underground gas storage and a 750 MW combined cycle power plant. Let's assume investment costs of €4 billion for this. Per kWh storage capacity only 4 €. 4 € / 20 years = 20 cents storage costs per kWh. That's really cute compared to €150 billion for rechargeable batteries. The efficiency is very modest for that. Now let's look at both variants in day/night balancing and summer/winter balancing. For the electricity purchase 5 cents kWh is calculated. Battery in day/night balance: 5.5 cents electricity purchase, 5.6 cents pro-rated storage cost = 11.1 cents kWh. Power to methane in day/night balance: 18 cents electricity purchase 20 cents pro-rated storage cost = 38 cents/kWh. Battery in summer/winter balance: 6 cents electricity purchase, 750 cents prorated storage cost = 756 cents kWh. Power to methane in summer/winter balance: 18 cents electricity purchase 20 cents prorated storage cost = 38 cents/kWh.
No exact technical data is known yet. The iron-air battery is therefore provisionally estimated at 60% efficiency and €10 per kWh capacity. Iron/air battery in day/night balance: 8.3 cents electricity purchase, 0.4 cents pro-rata storage cost = 8.7 cents kWh. Sounds great, but this is offset by the extremely low charge/end charge rate of 100 hours. Iron/air battery in summer/winter balance: 8.3 cents electricity purchase, 50 cents prorated storage cost = 58.3 cents kWh.
That was once a very rough overview of the cost structures. What has not been included so far: grid expansion. In the high-voltage grid, we calculate €3 million per km and GW. For example, to bring 1 GW of wind energy from the North Sea to Bavaria: 800 km * 3 M€ = 2,400 M€. 2,400 M€ / ( 1 GW * 3000 hours per year ) / 20 years = 4 cents line cost per kWh. If the fans of underground lines should prevail, then it would be: 14,400 M€ / ( 1 GW * 3000 hours per year ) / 20 years = 24 cents line cost per kWh. With underground lines, you can forget about wind power from the North Sea in Bavaria. It's simply too expensive.
For 100 houses, one usually takes a 400 kVA medium-voltage transformer. This was for common settlements, where the largest consumer was stove with oven. With the probability of simultaneity, it was calculated that 4 kVA per house would be sufficient. However, such a 5 ha settlement with only 80 houses would have 5 MW of photovoltaic power. Because of the east-west mounting of the photovoltaics, one would need a 3,500 kVA transformer without accumulators. That's a lot. With the planned 15 MWh accumulators, this is reduced to a 1,500 kVA transformer. With 5 MW PV and 4.25 GWh annual yield, the average daily yield is 11 MWh. Now you could install an additional 150 MWh of iron-air batteries in the settlement. Any daily yield above 18 MWh goes into the iron-air batteries and is fed in on days with very low yield. This would mean that only one 750 kVA transformer would be needed. After all, it's not just this transformer, but all the lines, high-voltage transformers and power to methane stations, the amount of which can be optimized.
The previous energy turnaround was "The bozos forgot about the batteries." Any cost comparison is impossible because it is not a non-functional assumption. You can't compare a wooden model of a car to a car because the wooden model just can't drive. This grotesque is seriously called a scientific paper on the energy transition. You can't assume that neighboring countries will supply 37 GW of electricity to Germany in a dark lull just because the bozos grotesquely lack electricity storage.
In the '90s, there were the most outlandish rolling disclaimers called electric cars: CityEl, Peugeot 106 electrique, Think, Twike. Then came a completely new idea: electric cars must be better than conventional cars. In 2003, a company was founded to prove the truth of this claim. In 2008, the time had come: The Tesla Roadster showed that electric cars can also be fun. Historical prices here unfortunately only go back to 2010. Still, even with an entry into Tesla in 2010, you would have more than doubled that investment. Tesla was more than "We're building a great electric sports car." Tesla is more than "We're building the best-selling car in the world." Whether Tesla becomes the largest or second largest car manufacturer in the world depends only on BYD. Toyota and Volkswagen are in the very deepest trouble. GEMINI next Generation is more than "We build a great house". Approach to the one million hectare program in Germany: 1,000 GW photovoltaics 3,000 GWh batteries 850 TWh annual yield Housing with the highest level of comfort for 16 million families instead of ridiculously inefficient corn cultivation for biogas. https://www.energie-bau.at/energie-wirtschaft/4458-100-erneuerbare-energie-ist-nur-ein-etappenziel Approach to the 100,000 hectares program for Austria: 100 GW photovoltaics 300 GWh batteries 85 TWh annual yield Housing with the highest level of comfort for 1.6 million families instead of ridiculously inefficient corn cultivation for biogas. https://www.energie-bau.at/energie-wirtschaft/4458-100-erneuerbare-energie-ist-nur-ein-etappenziel
A club member donates his membership fee to the club and is happy if the club is successful. If not, I have supported a good cause. A shareholder acquires shares in a stock corporation. If the AG is successful, his shares are worth much more. In the case of GEMINI next Generation AG, his reward for supporting a good cause. As a shareholder, employee or homebuyer, you will also become part of the countermovement against many negative developments in our society that are detrimental to our survival. A new shareholder said "I with my very modest investment", but 4,000 times 1,000 € is also 4 million for all investments until the opening of the settlement in Unken as a starting point for worldwide expansion. Only the Annual General Meeting can resolve the major capital increases, but here is what the Executive Board and Supervisory Board can resolve. The new capital stock is used to perfect the documents for the larger planned capital increases. Here are the details. |
